Jean-Christophe Caffet, Group Chief Economist at Coface, shared his insights on the key learnings from 2025 and the outlook for 2026 at the latest Coface Country Risk Conference on February 17.
Despite intense news coverage, 2025 was marked by a relative latency of the various risks weighing on the economy. Major global conflicts, from Ukraine to the Middle East, continued with intensity but remain confined to the regional level for the time being – at least in appearance. They have not caused new tensions on commodity prices or, more generally, new disruptions likely to derail the global economy.
Ultimately, the economy has weathered the stress test of the all-out trade war launched by the United States rather well – at least so far.
Faced with contemporary challenges, Jean-Christophe Caffet reiterates the need to strengthen Europe's economic competitiveness, but also the need to maintain a regulatory framework on the Old Continent, particularly with a view to limiting climate change.
Although 2025 did not turn out to be the economic disaster that had been predicted, uncertainty remains high and the risks have probably never been so great. The coming financial year, which is difficult to predict, therefore looks set to be particularly uncertain and turbulent.
Will the global economy once again prove resilient, as the ‘consensus’ view suggests? Or is it currently in the eye of a storm whose intensity is greatly underestimated, if not denied?
To understand the major risks in 2026 and inform your decisions, watch the full analysis by Jean-Christophe Caffet, Chief Economist at Coface, at the Coface Country Risk Conference.
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