The growth driver should be more broad-based, with both domestic consumption and public spending providing support
The Danish economy is expected to continue its stable growth trajectory, although with a shift in its main growth drivers. The pharmaceutical sector, which has been the principal engine of growth in recent years, is expected to slow in 2026 and 2027 following several exceptionally strong years. However, the broader domestic private sector should benefit from a gradual reduction in corporate income tax. In addition, stable inflation due to the recent reduction in the energy surcharge are expected to support household consumption. Further tax cuts, including the abolition of the top income tax bracket and the removal of the lower-middle bracket, should, together with real wage growth and a still-robust housing market, provide additional support to household purchasing power. This effect is likely to be reinforced by the high level of accumulated household savings.
Monetary policy will also play an important role. Danmarks Nationalbank is expected to continue broadly following the ECB’s policy stance, with interest rates remaining unchanged for the foreseeable future and the possibility of easing in late 2027. However, recent market volatility may make banks more cautious about extending credit, particularly to smaller businesses. Despite this, a further increase in government spending is expected to provide additional support to domestic demand and help sustain economic activity. Overall, although the external sector is likely to be less supportive than in recent years, favourable domestic conditions should allow the Danish economy to remain resilient throughout 2026 and 2027.
Corporate insolvencies are expected to remain relatively stable in 2026 and to stay contained in 2027. While improving domestic demand should support the private sector, the external environment remains challenging, particularly in light of recent disruptions and ongoing uncertainty. This outlook is further shaped by a fragile export environment weighed down by geopolitical tensions. As a result, insolvencies are likely to be concentrated in more vulnerable sectors, particularly among export-oriented heavy industries.
Positive fiscal balances despite rising public spending
The outlook for 2026 and 2027 reflects a continued robust fiscal position. However, higher public expenditure, including increased defence spending, is expected to narrow the public balance towards zero. Even so, the balance should remain in surplus, as tax revenues are projected to continue rising owing to strong employment levels, despite the planned tax cuts. Denmark’s public debt is expected to remain low and broadly unchanged by international standards, reinforcing the country’s strong debt sustainability.
Denmark’s current account balance is also expected to remain positive in 2026 and 2027, supported by strong exports of goods and services. However, following several particularly strong years, the surplus is likely to narrow somewhat as external demand moderates and global uncertainties persist. While large multinational companies will continue to contribute to periodic fluctuations, Denmark’s structurally competitive export sectors, including pharmaceuticals, food and energy, should ensure that the current account remains in a solid position overall.
Domestic stability, but global tensions continue to affect Denmark
The political landscape in Denmark remains relatively stable following the formation of a new government in mid-2026. The centre-left coalition consists of the Social Democrats, the Green Left Party, the Moderates and the Social Liberal Party. The next general election must be held no later than March 2030. Although coalition negotiations were lengthy, the government has broadly pursued a balanced agenda, combining lower income taxes and reductions in selected VAT rates with measures such as freezing certain tax thresholds, increasing inheritance taxes on high-value properties, and adjusting interest deductibility and other tax provisions.
The US administration’s renewed interest in Greenland has reignited debate in Denmark regarding the future of the Kingdom of Denmark, comprising Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Nevertheless, Greenland’s 2025 election indicated continued support for remaining within the Kingdom. Following a period of heightened tensions between the United States and the Kingdom of Denmark over Greenland’s future, both sides are now participating in a working group aimed at defining their future relationship, including the potential expansion of the US military presence in Greenland.

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