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Tel./Fax: + 229 21 31 65 89
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COFACE WEST AFRICA BURKINA FASO 
Secteur 05, 1268, avenue Kwamé N'Krumah
01 BP 3240 Ouagadougou
Tel./Fax: +226 50 33 01 13

Cell.: +226 70 28 30 68
e-mail: coface_westafrica@coface.com
Office manager: djeneba_ouedraogo@coface.com
Managing director: philippe_hoeblich@coface.com
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COFACE SERVICES WEST AFRICA CAMEROON

Imm. BICEC - 4ème étage
Avenue de Gaulle Bonanjo
BP 18342 Douala
Tel.: +237 33 42 51 53
Fax.: +237 33 42 00 96

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COFACE GABON SERVICES
Immeuble DIAMANT
2è étage
BP 1070
Libreville
Tel. : + 241 05 03 69 05
Fax : + 241 76 13 50
Email : coface_westafrica@coface.com

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2 Cocody Plateaux
Lot n°85 Ilot 9
18 Abidjan
Tel.:+ 225 22 41 49 68
Fax.:+ 225 22 41 48 49
Ivory Coast
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COFACE SERVICES MALAYSIA SDN BHD
CP 17, Suite 1304 13th Floor,
Central Plaza, 34 Jalan Sultan Ismail
50250 Kuala Lumpur
Tel.:+60 (3)  2141 3380
Fax.:+60 (3) 2141 3381
e-mail:
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Imm. Dramane Kouma
Av Cheick Zahed
BP E 4770 Bamako
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Postboks 2006 Vika
0125 Oslo

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43, rue Albert Sarraut
Immeuble AGS Parchappe
BP 12454 Dakar
Tel: +221 33 823 69 92
Fax.: +221 33 842 08 87

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COFACE SERVICES KOREA CO LTD
Kyobo Life Insurance Bldg. 9F
1 Jongno 1-ga, Jongno-gu
Seoul 110-714
Tel.:+82 (0)2 2088 7401 
Fax.:+82 (0)2 2088 7474
e-mail: jinhak_ryu@coface.com

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COFACE HOLDING (THAILAND) CO LTD
622 Emporium Tower, 22th Floor
Sukhumvit 24, 
Klongtoey
10110 Bangkok
Tel.: +66 (02) 664 89 89
Fax.: +66 (02) 664 89 98
e-mail: marketing_thailand@coface.com

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COFACE WEST AFRICA TOGO
22, Boulevard de la Paix
Immeuble ERAD
Quartier Super TACO
BP 899 Lomé
Tel./Fax: +228 220 89 58

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COFACE VIETNAM SERVICES

Suite 1719, 17th floor, Gemadept Tower,
N°6, Le Thanh Ton Street, 1st District
Ho Chi Minh City
Tel: +84 8 62 556 928
Fax: +84 8 62 556 801
e-mail: coface_vietnam@coface.com 

Vietnam

Czech Republic


Population 10.553 million

GDP 193.513 US$ billion

@rating
countryA3

Business climate
assessmentA2

Czech Republic Download or print this country file Bookmark and share



Major macro economic indicators
 201020112012(e)2013(f)
GDP growth (%)
2.6

1.7

-1.2

-0.3

Inflation (yearly average) (%)

1.5

1.9

3.3

2.6

Budget balance (% GDP)

-4.8

-3.1

-3.2

-3.3

Current account balance (% GDP)

-3.8

-3

-2

-2.5

Public debt (% GDP)

37.6

40.5

43.1

45

 
(e) Estimate (f) Forecast

STRENGTHS

  • Strongly integrated into international production chain
  • Favoured destination for foreign direct investment in central Europe
  • Current account deficits, external debt, foreign currency indebtedness and credit growth contained


WEAKNESSES

  • Heavy dependence on European demand: exports represent 84% of GDP, of which 67% are to the EU
  • Aging population and lack of skills
  • Geographic position away from the centre of Europe



Risk assessment

 

Growth dependent on European demand

In 2013, as in 2012, the Czech economy will suffer from the weak eurozone growth and from the austerity policies in place. Uncertainties over economic prospects as well as the political reasons for increasing VAT by one point put downward pressure on household consumption, which represents 50.7% of GDP. However, consumption will recover in the 4th quarter of 2013 due to a slight easing of the austerity policies at the end of the same year in the run up to the 2014 parliamentary elections. The job market will continue to worsen with long-term unemployment reaching 37% against 23% at the end of 2009. The Czech Central Bank cut its key rate three times in 2012 without impacting consumption. It is now at a floor of 0.05%. In the short term this accommodating monetary policy will benefit Czech exports, since Czech products will gain in competitiveness due to the depreciation of the Czech koruna. The country’s economy is very open: total foreign trade represented 145% of GDP in 2012. However, the economy’s complete integration into European manufacturing processes will prevent the country from benefiting from long-term from the fall in its currency. Moreover, the country suffers from a double exposure since 84% of exports are concentrated within the European Union (with 66% in the eurozone) and 17.5% relate to car manufacturing.  In 2013, inflation will be below 3%, although higher than in 2010 and 2011 due to the VAT increase and the higher cost of imported products. Meanwhile, the Czech banking system, owned mainly by eurozone banks, could be a source of concern. However, unlike the majority of East European countries, the subsidiaries are largely financed by domestic deposits and are conservative with regard to prudential rules.


Reforms putting public finances in order

The government, called to order at the end of 2009 by the European Commission, brought the current account deficit down to around 3% of GDP. After fierce discussions within the coalition, the government approved a series of budgetary reforms (health and tax system) aimed at reducing the deficit and limiting public debt. The most important reforms relate to reduced fiscal allowances on home saving plans and stricter conditions for obtaining unemployment benefit. Moreover, the implementation in 2013 of a reform adopted in 2011 (despite much criticism) will confirm the principle of a funded pension system, which will gradually replace the pay-as-you go system. Public debt, up over 10 points compared with 2007, will remain sustainable and is entering a stabilisation phase.  The current majority, however, wants to add 4 new critical levels of debt linked to the adoption of budget adjustments. So, if the debt exceeds 40% of GDP, preventive adjustment measures must be taken; from 45% public spending will be frozen; above 48% the budget must be immediately reviewed so as to halt the rise and there will be a vote of confidence in the government if the debt reaches 50% of GDP. Investor confidence is essential for the country as the current account deficit is covered by foreign direct investments weakened by the European environment. The current account deficit has been shrinking since the second half of 2011, especially because of falling domestic demand in response to the austerity policies. When these are eased in late 2013 the current account deficit will rise slightly.


Reforms in difficult social context

The Czech Republic is conducting an ambiguous policy with regard to the EU, a divisive issue for the coalition in power. This raises fears of Czech diplomacy being marginalised in Europe though joining the eurozone remains an ambition. European questions are a major source of disagreement between President Vaclav Klaus, hostile to an integrated Europe, and the social democrats, centrists and Christian democrats who, like the Czech population, are more pro-Europe.
Already weak, the coalition’s centre-right parliamentary majority is no longer assured after dissensions appeared in its ranks. With a big victory for the social democrats in the October 2012 regional and senate elections, the opposition is calling for early parliamentary elections to avoid any political deadlock until June 2014. One can probably assume power will change hands at the next presidential elections in January 2013. Meanwhile, corruption is still crippling the country with many instances involving ministers. To inject fresh democratic impetus in the face of declining participation and popular discontent linked to corruption, the next president will be elected for the first time by direct universal suffrage. The president will, however have only a representational role.


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