Warning: the Coface country rating does not pertain to the sovereign debt since it indicates the average level of risk displayed by the companies in a country within the framework of their commercial transaction. This average change does not prejudge that of the score for each company, which remains determined by its own characteristics: it is therefore necessary for the partners of a company in one of the countries mentioned to have its specific evaluation by Coface.
The Country Risk Conference organized each year by Coface in
On the occasion of this first Russian edition of the Country Risk Conference, Coface indicates that
· Russia and CIS region, kept intact from worldwide growth slowdown in 2011
According to Coface, worldwide growth should slow down in 2011 at 3.2% compared to 4.2% in 2010. This is due to recent events in
The CIS will be the only zone to slightly accelerate its growth in 2011 with 4.7% compared to 4.4% in 2010. For
· Russia back to its pre-crisis level of country risks but still behind other BRICs
Only 9 out of 28 advanced countries rated by Coface have returned to their pre-crisis level. Contrary to the euro zone, where the private debt bubble has resulted in sovereign crises,
In 2011 the main economic engines will continue to be public spending, with further increases in social benefits and the continuation of support measures for sectors in difficulty, and private consumption. Although inflation is expected to continue to rise until mid-2011, it will nonetheless remain below the rates prevailing before the crisis.
Companies are pursuing their debt reduction process and investments are therefore contained. According to Coface, the payment behaviour of Russian companies, which had seriously deteriorated during the crisis, has improved significantly with the growth resumption.
The recovery has nonetheless been limited as
· A high level of risks in the CIS
In spite of their strategic situation between Asia and
Press contact: Maria Krellenstein / ( 33 (0)1 49 02 16 29 / email@example.com
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Coface is a subsidiary of Natixis whose share capital (Tier 1) was 16.8 billion Euros end December 2010.
Country @rating definitions
The political and economic situation is very propitious and the business environment is excellent, which has a positive effect on corporate payment behaviour. Average default probability is very low.
The political and economic situation is propitious. The business environment may have a few shortcomings. Average corporate default probability is not very high.
Payment behaviour is apt to be affected by changes in the country's good but somewhat volatile economic and political environment. The business environment has shortcomings. Average corporate default probability is satisfactory.
The political and economic outlook may be marked by a few weaknesses. The relative volatility of the business environment may affect payment behaviour, but the average probability of that resulting in a payment default remains within acceptable limits.
An uncertain economic and financial context and a sometimes difficult business environment can affect payment behaviour. Average corporate default probability is relatively high.
A very uncertain economic and political outlook and business environment affected by many shortcomings are apt to seriously undermine payment behaviour. Average corporate payment default probability is high.
The economic and political outlook is subject to very high risks and the business environment can be very difficult. These weaknesses can have a very substantial effect on payment behaviour. Average corporate payment default probability is very high.